According to the latest predictions of the European Union, the economic foundation of the euro zone in 2024 is weaker than previous expectations, and it is expected that economic growth this year will be downturn.

The preliminary statistics released by the European Union Statistical Bureau on January 30 showed that in the fourth quarter of last year, the euro zone and the EU economy increased from the previous month. The European Commission also stated in the relevant report that the GDP of the euro zone this year will only accelerate to an increase of 0.8%, an increase of 0.5%in 2023. It was expected to accelerate significantly to 1.2%in November last year. The agency also reduced the forecast of 2025 from an increase of 1.6%to an increase of 1.5%. Although the European economy reluctantly avoids "technical recession", under the influence of factors such as increased geopolitical tensions, continuous currency tightening, and weak global demand, the prospects in 2024 are unspeakable.

Data show that the economy in Germany has shrunk by 0.3%month -on -month in the fourth quarter of last year, and French economic growth has stalled. As the engine of the economic growth of the euro zone, the economic downturn in Germany and France is dragging down the overall performance of the euro zone.

Germany is known as the "European Economic Locomment", but last year became one of the worst performance in major developed economies. The German industry and import and exports averaged negative growth in 2023; individual and government consumption failed to support economic growth. Among them, government consumption expenditure has fallen for the first time in the past 20 years. Analysis shows that factors such as rising energy -intensive industries, shortage of skilled workers, insufficient infrastructure and digital technology investment affect Germany's economic growth.

Casten Bukiski, director of macro research in the Netherlands International Group, believes that the German economy is still declining and stagnant due to geopolitical risks, economic periodic issues and internal defects. The German Institute of Macroeconomic Policy also said that the German economy will continue to shrink under the background of weak trade recovery, geopolitical turmoil, and tightening monetary policy.

Due to weak domestic demand, consumption, family and corporate investment in France declined in the fourth quarter of last year, and dragged down the economic growth of the economy. The Dutch International Group predicts that France's economic growth rate will be weaker than last year. Factors such as high interest rates, high inflation, decline in purchasing power, and weak corporate demand will continue to affect France's economic growth in 2024.

If inflation fails to further decline, the Central Bank of Europe may not be able to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts, which may cause the "stagnation" phenomenon that continues to rise and grow long -term weakness. It can be seen that the European Central Bank's interest rate reduction "should not be late". The tightening policy will lead to the economic downturn, and it should pay close attention to the inflation data of the euro zone that is about to be announced, which is essential for the "beginning of determining the loose cycle".

Of course, there is also a view that in order to avoid inflation, the European Central Bank will take more cautious practices. Fedrich Heineman, an economist at Leibniz Institute of Economics in Germany, said that the European Central Bank may make a decision to make rapid interest rate cuts due to unsatisfactory economic situation, but the premise is that inflation must achieve a 2%midterm goal.

The European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting on January 25, and decided to continue to maintain the three key interest rates. The latest monetary policy resolutions and statements have not provided clear clues on interest rate cuts. The preliminary statistics released by the European Union Statistics on January 5 show that the inflation rate of the euro zone in December last year was 2.9%at an annual rate, which was higher than 2.4%in November.

At present, the market has different expectations for the European Central Bank. Some institutions predict that the European Central Bank will postpone the rate of interest cutting to June. Although economic growth should be more stable in 2025, and inflation may "fall to the target level of 2%close to the European Central Bank", geopolitical tensions, increasingly unstable climate, and a series of key elections around the world this year are all surrounded by surrounding around Factors of uncertainty in this prospect. Even if the prospects in other parts of the world have improved, the euro area has the risk of long -term weakness.

In the future, the euro zone economy has fallen into long -term weakness. The factors that have recently dragged down European economic growth still exist, and its negative impact will even be more severe than last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the "World Economic Outlook Report" on January 30. It is expected that the economic growth of the euro zone in 2024 is 0.9%, which is 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts.

Market research institution Kaitou macroeconomic scientist Jack Allen-Reynolds recently pointed out in the analysis report that since the third quarter of 2022, natural gas prices have soared and the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes have been sluggish. The report said that due to the continued impact of the European Central Bank's currency tightening policy and stricter fiscal policy, the economic performance of the euro zone in the euro zone in the first half of this year is still difficult to improve.

Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks and rising trade protectionism, the pressure on the European economy continues to increase. Recently, the risk of geopolitical conflict facing the Red Sea route of important oil transportation lines in the Middle East has suddenly upgraded. Yemen is adjacent to the most busy waterway in the world, one of the most busy waterways, and the northern part of the Red Sea is the Suez Canal. This channel carries 12%of the world ’s maritime trade volume. After the new round of Pakistani conflict broke out in October last year, the Houthi armed forces used drones and missiles to attack the target of Red Sea. According to the Hassy armed statement, the target of the attack is to associate Israeli ships to show support for Palestine. Affected by this, a number of international oil giants such as British Petroleum Corporation announced the suspension of transportation through the Red Sea, and international oil prices rose.

Since January 12, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched an air strike on Yemenhot's armed targets, causing many people and injuries. Some countries condemned the actions of the United States and Britain, arguing that this was an infringement of Yemen's sovereignty. The American and British crackdown on the Hascean armed target will not only reduce the situation of the Red Sea, but greatly exacerbate the local tension, which leads to a longer -term avoided shipping company to avoid the Red Sea route. This may exacerbate inflation again.

Some latest data indicate that "does not indicate that the European economy will improve significantly." In the first quarter of this year, the euro zone economy has shrunk slightly and the European economy will not rebound significantly this year. Holg Schmidin, chief economist of Balenberg Bank in Germany, emphasized that the euro zone economy "is still trying to find the bottom."