Geopolitics risk rises

The most busy waterway in the world in the west of Yemen is the Red Sea route, and the northern part of the Red Sea is the Suez Canal. This channel carries 12%of the world's maritime trade volume. After the new round of Pakistani conflict broke out in October last year, the Houthi armed forces used drones and missiles to attack the target of red seawater. According to the Hassy armed statement, the target of the attack is to associate Israeli ships to show support for Palestine. Affected by this, a number of international oil giants such as British Petroleum Corporation announced the suspension of transportation through the Red Sea, and international oil prices rose.

Since January 12, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched an air strike on Yemenhot's armed targets, causing many people and injuries. Some countries condemned the actions of the United States and Britain, arguing that this was an infringement of Yemen's sovereignty. Market analysts pointed out that the British Britain's crackdown on Hersey's armed targets will not only reduce the situation of the Red Sea, but greatly exacerbate the local tension, which leads to a short period of time to avoid the Red Sea route for a longer time.

On the impact of Pakistani conflict on international oil prices, Saudi Arabia oil expert Anas Hargi believes that Palestine's conflict itself will not have a great impact on international oil prices, but if the Palestinian conflict overflow effect will increase, resulting More countries, including oil -producing countries, will have a significant impact on international oil prices.
 

market fluctuations or aggravate economic turmoil

Geopolical risk is one of the main external impacts of oil price fluctuations. Geopolical conflicts usually exacerbate the uncertainty, complexity and unpredictability of the crude oil market. The price of crude oil will temporarily disconnect from the fundamental aspect of supply and demand, and fluctuations intensify.

The uncertainty of fluctuations in oil prices will exacerbate economic turmoil in various countries, increase the impact of inflation, and hinder the global economic recovery momentum. Once the supply crisis of oil and gas appears, the global supply chain may face the risk of interruption. The rapid rise in short -term crude oil prices may cause the inflation rate in Europe and the United States to suddenly rebound, which will cause the market's original expected interest rate cycle to decline, which will bring greater risks to the global capital market. The geopolitical conflict leads to fluctuations in oil prices and then affect economic activities, which may endanger the realization of the realization of the target of extreme poverty by 2030.
 

Oil price trend is facing new challenges

In the future, the international crude oil market is more valued. On the one hand, it changes in supply and demand, and on the other hand, it is the safety of oil facilities. From the perspective of demand and output, in the context of the slowdown of global economic growth in 2024 and the increase in economic development pressure from various countries, the "OPEC+" members of the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Country (OPEC) and the non -OPEC oil -producing country The possibility of extension and deepening production and deepening production, as well as the possibility of huge changes in the production of non -"OPEC+" national production, but the possibility of local oil supply interruptions still exist. Even if this possibility does not last long, the impact cannot be underestimated.

In terms of oil facilities, the current petroleum facilities are very fragile in the face of drone attacks. Under the blessing of geopolitical factors, it may cause international oil prices to fluctuate sharply.

On December 18 last year, about 70%of the gas stations across the country were interrupted by network attacks. Israeli media reported that a hacker organization with "once connected with Israel" implemented the attack. The Iranian side stated that the gas station failure was made by the Iranian enemy conspiracy.

As the level of network attack continues to increase, large oil facilities with a high degree of automation can easily become the target of attack. Once a large oil facility of an important oil -producing country encounters a network attack, the impact on international oil prices is likely to exceed people's imagination. From the middle and long term, the main reason for promoting the rise in oil prices is the overall situation of the world economic recovery and the needs of major economies, but the current geopolitical conflict has become a significant factor affecting international oil prices.