The Federal Reserve Committee and the two -day monetary policy conference ended on March 20, announced that the federal fund interest rate target range is unchanged between 5.25%and 5.5%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve or implemented three interest rate cuts within this year.

This is the fifth consecutive time that the Federal Reserve has remained unchanged since September last year. The Federal Reserve said in a statement issued on the same day that before the inflation rate continued to move towards the long -term goal of 2%, it was "inappropriate" to reduce the federal fund interest rate target range. At present, the US economic prospects are uncertain. The Federal Public Marketing Committee responsible for the formulation of monetary policy will continue to pay great attention to inflation risks.

Statement reiterates that when evaluating the proper monetary policy position, the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of the upcoming information on the economic prospects. If the risk that may hinder the achievement of the goal may occur, the Fed will prepare to adjust the monetary policy position as appropriate.

The Federal Reserve also released the latest economic prospects on the same day. It will increase the expected US economic growth of this year by 0.7 percentage points to 2.1%, and the expected economic growth expectations in 2025 will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 2%. It is expected that the U.S. unemployment rates are 4%and 4.1%respectively this year and again. At the same time, the inflation expectations measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index this year are expected to be 2.4%, and the core inflation expectations of food and energy prices are expected to rise to 2.6%, and it will still exceed 2%of long -term targets.

According to economic prospects, nine of members of the 19 Federal Public Marketing Committee believe that the interest rate level of federal funds may fall to 4.5%to 4.75%during the year. This means that at the speed of 25 basis points at a rate of interest rates, the Fed may implement three interest rate cuts this year this year, which is the same as prediction in December last year. Five members are expected to drop to 4.75%to 5%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference held after the meeting that the Federal Reserve has not yet obtained confidence in the various data that can start to reduce interest rate cuts, and the inflation and economic prospects are uncertain. In the case, the Fed will maintain the current level of interest rate targets for federal funds in the current level for a longer period of time. He avoided the issue of whether the reporter's proposal will be at the first time at the May or June meeting of this year, saying that the Fed will not make any commitments for the future meeting, and will continue to make a decision at each meeting. Fed officials generally believe that it is appropriate to slow down and reduce their holdings as soon as possible, which will help ensure transitions, promote the continuous decline of securities holdings, and increase sufficient foreign exchange reserves. The Fed is expected to slow down the pace of shrinkage soon.

The market is expected to increase interest rate cuts in June in June. The market is more optimistic about starting interest rate cuts in June, but it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to continue. The Fed's first interest rate cut for the first time has a significant impact. Before the interest rate cut, the Fed needs more confidence, that is, inflation continues to decline.
 

Market Outlook:

1) U.S. stocks: The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates. Against it, US stocks rose overnight. But the stock market may be at any time from March to August this year.
2) U.S. Treasuries: At present, the judgment or differences between markets and policies on inflation prospects are different from the data "overheating" but the Fed of the United States "calm". Poems and short factors may support 10 years of US bond interest rates to remain at 4%to 4.3%.
3) Gold: According to the current rhythm, it is obviously strong, and the Asian market's strong physical needs continue to support the precious metal market, and the gold market is narrow.