On the night of April 14, the attack on Israel, all of the sights in the Middle East. Although the oil market is turbulent, the price of Crude Oil in Beihai once again fell below the $ 90 mark per barrel.

The price of oil has not rebounded compared to the past, and even slightly fell. If the attack occurs during the trading day, oil prices may rise immediately. And if Israel is retaliated, it may increase oil prices. But it is unclear whether it will enter a cycle of attacks and revenge. This area concentrates nearly half of the world's oil reserves.

Tight geopolitical factors have the effect of rising oil prices, but the impact is limited. After Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Malaysia on April 1, the market has been waiting for Iran's retaliation measures. The trend is that oil prices have risen, but the amplitude will not be very large. Like everyone who is concerned about global geopolitics, the oil market is clear that the negotiations between Israel and the United States are decisive. At present, the oil market is choosing to wait and see.

In addition to geopolitical factors such as the Middle East and Ukraine, the situation of the oil market is also some of the factors that have recently risen in oil prices. Over the past few months, "OPEC+" consisting of 22 oil -producing countries has implemented a production restriction policy. This policy began in the fall of 2022. At the ministerial meeting held in November last year, these countries decided to continue production restrictions in the first quarter of 2024. In early March, they announced that the production restriction policy continued in the second quarter. Some people believe that they may continue to extend production limit in June, which may affect the current forecast. Global oil consumption in 2023 hit a record high. Now people think that this record will be broken this year. The market looks tense, but it cannot be said to be short of oil.

22 oil -producing countries have only one thing in common -they are very dependent on oil, which is enough to let them sit on a table to make decisions. Theoretically, the price of oil is $ 90 than $ 60 for their export revenue. This is not a geopolitical issue, because they have not participated in anti -Western activities. It should not allow oil prices to be too high, because this may reduce global oil demand and even cause global economy to shrink. The current oil prices are very suitable, and the global economy will not be seriously affected.

Petroleum is the most consumed energy sources in the world, and no one can get rid of it quickly and vigorously. At present, the problem of the Holmus Strait is very important: this is the main channel for global oil trade. Objectively, Iran does not want to block the Strait for many reasons.

Once the Holmus Strait is blocked, it will have a "very serious" impact on the world economy, and it may increase the price of oil to the "level of damage demand." The Holmus Strait is connected to the Middle East oil -producing country and many important oil markets in the world. According to data provided by the US Energy Administration, about one -five -fifths of crude oil production is transported here. A research report in the United States in the second half of last year shows that if Israel attacked Iran, the Holmus Strait will face the risk of being blocked, and international oil prices may exceed $ 250 per barrel.

If Iran decides to block, war will erupt the day after tomorrow, which is simpler. The blockade of the Holmus Strait is tantamount to war. As a result, it was not just as simple as the United Nations Security Council, and counterattacks may be military. It is difficult for Iran to win in the conflict. The leader is not a lunatic, and they will take reasonable action. Secondly, if Tehran blocked the Strait of Holmus, it cannot export oil itself, which is its economic pillar. In the end, this may hinder the tankers from all over the world, especially Asian countries, including China. Only when Iran believes that the regime is truly dangerous, will it take the actions of blocking the strait.