The "Golden Three Silver Four" in the real estate market seems to be no longer, but the "Golden Three Gold Four" of the precious metal market has become a reality. Golden Market opened a continuous rise model, and gold futures and spot prices have reached a record high. The retail price of many domestic gold and silver jewelry brand stores is above 700 yuan/gram.

The continuous increase in the allocation of gold assets has become an important force to promote the growth of global gold demand and drive the continuous rise in international gold prices. In addition, the price of gold is not only affected by the factors of supply and demand, but also is deeply shaped by the US dollar and geopolitics. The price of gold in this round began in the first half of 2019. At this stage, the United States released the US dollar. The big inflation caused by the depreciation of the US dollar made the price of gold sitting on the rocket. Since 2022, the price of gold has ushered in spring again, which is closely related to geopolitical relations. The demand for risk has been inserted into the wings again.

The US employment data is strong without changing the trend of gold. The geopolitical risks of the Middle East have strengthened the attractiveness of gold, and the market avoided the shadow of the prospects of the US's strong economic data to the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike prospects. Subsequently, during the Qingming holiday, the non -agricultural employment report released by the US Department of Labor showed that the non -agricultural employment population increased by 303,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 200,000, and the largest increase since May 23rd. The unemployment rate in March was 3.8%, which met the expectations, and declined by 3.9%compared to the previous value. However, the labor participation rate rose to 62.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from February. The price of gold is still strong. The recurrence of the short -term US economy and employment data may bring back and forth fluctuations in gold prices. As the negative impact of the high interest rate environment on the economy gradually appears, the upward or end of the US debt yields may be close to the end, supporting the medium -term gold price.

Non -agricultural super -expected trend will not change gold prices. In 23 years, the configuration funds represented by Gold ETF have gradually left the market, leading to a significant departure of gold prices and ETF positions. Since March this year, the gold ETF holding volume has picked up, an increase of 4.71 tons month -on -month. In the case of 24 years of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut, the regression of allocating funds has returned or became another driving force for the rise in gold prices. In addition, the US dollar credit has long -term concerns, and the central bank has supported long -term gold prices.

Looking forward to the future, the demand for gold remains hot, which has laid the foundation for strong gold prices. At the same time, the US dollar interest rate hike cycle is about to end. Once the interest rate reduction cycle is entered and the liquidity of the US dollar is released, it will bring up power to gold prices.

Gold standing at the starting point of the medium and long -term bull market, de -US dollarization is the underlying logic. Looking at the big cycle (divided from three major cycles from 1971), compared with the second golden bull market, the current probability is in the middle and early stages of the golden bull market. There are expected interest rate cuts, high inflation, and downward US dollar indexes, and the world is superimposed in the world. The background of the US dollar and decentralization. Looking at the small cycle (2-3 years), the yield on the US dollar and US debt is downward, and the actual interest rate may enter the downward cycle, superimposed on the demand for risk-free from geopolitics. Gold is currently in the middle of the rising stage of the small cycle model. At present, the first round of starting the first round of Sino -US trade friction and the slowdown of global economic growth has gradually moved towards a new high point.
 

Market Outlook：

1）U.S. stocks：The Middle East conflict has made global investors' "risk aversion" emotional, and the Federal Reserve's partial eagle faction is superimposed. The better the economy, the less interest rates will be reduced, and the worse the stock market performance. The logical interpretation of "good news is bad news in the stock market". The US stock market is expected to usher in a new round of rise.
2）U.S. Treasuries：The expectations of interest rate reduction may continue to sway under data and geopolitics. It is expected that the short -term US debt interest rate will be affected by factors such as inflation and delay in interest rate cuts. Emotional and inflation suppression of long -term growth expectations occur to a certain degree of "suppression".
3）Gold：The central bank's purchase of gold will continue. The geopolitical risks of Russia and the Middle East will be increasing the attractiveness of gold. It is expected that short -term gold prices will be affected by geographical risks. The further risk reminder is that the dollar continues to strengthen.